Monday, December 31, 2012

So, how did I do with my 2012 predictions?

Oh dear. It's time to dust off the predictions I made for 2012 and see how well my crystal ball was functioning this time last year. So, how did I do?

1. The SNP will wimp out on full equal marriage, allowing it in civil ceremonies but not for religious.

I don't think I have ever been so glad to be wrong in my whole life. Well done, Nicola Sturgeon, for powering on through and ensuring that those religious organisations, and humanists, who want to conduct same sex marriage ceremonies will be able to do so. 

2. Obama will win the presidential election against Romney, but it'll be a close run thing and our hearts will be in our mouths for most of the time between Labor Day and 6th November.

I'm claiming this one. Anyone who was looking at the polls in the swing states would have felt more confident, but the first debate in early October made the Republicans think they could win after all. There were some scary moments.

3. A Liberal Democrat Cabinet seat will change hands, and will not be a resignation on principle.

Another one in the bag after Chris Huhne's resignation in February. It was Huhne, sadly, that I was thinking of when I made that one.

4. Jo Swinson will become a minister.

And so she did in the September reshuffle

5. The coalition will last the year, but there will be more public differences of opinion between ministers particularly over immigration and human rights.

Another one down. Although I suppose I should take half a mark off for it being Lords reform, taxation and welfare reform that were the main lines of attack on the Tories.

6. The Eurozone will limp on, narrowly avoiding catastrophe on a weekly basis, but with real hardship for people as many economies, including ours, go into recession.

I wish I'd been wrong on this one. I suppose this year could have been worse for the Eurozone, but it's not where we want to be at all and I feel for all those people in Greece and Spain who simply can't get jobs.

7. The Government will not win the vote on time limiting Employment and Support Allowance in the House of Lords and will have to rethink the policy. 

Well, they didn't win the vote, so I guess that's half a mark, but sadly they didn't rethink the policy. They just used some bit of Parliamentary jiggery-pokery to make it a finance measure that they didn't need Lords support to implement. 

8. A date for the referendum on independence will be set.

Kinda. We know the season if not the date. There was a suggestion that it could be on Saturday 14 October 2014. 

9. British sportswomen will outperform British men in the Olympics, which will have plenty of rows and the odd cock up attached to them.

I think I may have underestimated the triumphant brilliance of the Games and how they won over a previously cynical nation. We let the Jubilee soften us up and then threw ourselves into support for Team GB. And our women did brilliantly. Lizzie Armitstead, Jade Jones, Nicola Adams, Jess Ennis, Katherine Grainger, Sarah Storey, Victoria Pendleton were great to get to know along with Mo Farah, Brad, Cav, Andy Murray, Greg Rutherford, Sir Chris Hoy and Sir Ben Ainslie.

10. Labour will not make up any ground in the polls and Ed Miliband's position will be at best under threat by the end of the year.

Sadly, this one didn't come true, despite Labour's hypocrisy, mixed messages and appalling behaviour over Lords reform. They gain by not being the Government.

11. The 2012 F1 World Championship will be decided on the last race between Vettel, Button and Webber. Raikonnen and Schumacher will both win races and challenge for podium positions during the year.

Almost. Kimi won a race, the championship was decided on the last race between Vettel and Alonso, though - and Schumi got on the podium. 

12. Steven Moffat will relent and give Karen, Rory and River a happy ending.

Well, it was happier than I expected, and River survived. I was worried she wouldn't. 

So, not bad, really. Only one that didn't come true and the rest were there or thereabouts. Let's see what the crystal ball says for 2013.

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