That strange SNP logic where Independence will win even if it comes second

Over the years I've become accustomed to the fact that the SNP have trouble counting. Any analysis of any of their spending commitments at any election has shown a gaping hole somewhere. I think the funniest thing was them accounting for £250 million of savings for the Forth Bridge, which hasn't even been built yet in their most recent manifesto.

These are big numbers, though. I kind of gave them credit for being able to work out which was the most popular between three options using numbers between 1 and 100. 

How wrong I was.

Thanks to some investigation by Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie, it transpires that we are in danger of getting independence anyway, even if most people choose what will effectively be the home rule option. It's not like in 1997, where the second question, on tax raising powers is a subset of the first - you can't have tax raising powers without a parliament. This time round, independence, devo max and the status quo are all separate options. Willie asked what would happen if both options had over 50%. Well, it transpires, that if the independence vote went 51-49 and the devo max went 99-1, both in favour, that independence would win.

In what universe does that mean that the biggest mandate for independence? A vote for Devo Max is effectively a vote to remain in the UK, which is contradictory to independence. If both questions are won, surely the option with the biggest vote is the one which should prevail? 

Regular readers will know that I have always been extremely relaxed about the idea of a referendum on independence and I was annoyed by the position we took in 2007. I'm also not wildly bothered about process stories, much preferring to discuss the detail and the ideas. However, I have to make an exception in this case - Willie was right to highlight this as an example of the SNP's "astonishing disregard for democracy". 

He called their position "election jiggery pokery". One thing about Willie is he's bringing good words of our childhoods back into use. It'll be crikey and crivens next, no doubt.

What we need out of this referendum is certainty one way or the other. What we don't need is the settled will of the Scottish people being disregarded in favour of the only outcome that's palatable to hardened SNP activists.

The way the SNP is planning to do this could lead to a disputed outcome which in turn could make things very, very tense. Now, I want to see home rule, or devo max, or whatever you want to call it as an option - but I also want to be sure that the SNP will back the clearly expressed will of the people. If more people back devo max than independence, then that is what should be implemented. No ifs, buts or maybes.

For the last few years, the SNP have talked of independence only in whispers. In the run up to this year's election, they barely talked about it at all. And when Mike Moore and Willie Rennie try to get details about their plans out of them, they tell us to wait and all will be revealed in good time. Then they go to Inverness for four days and literally talk about nothing else. They're clearly in a euphoric, blissful bubble after their first get together since what was admittedly a very clever campaign and historic victory. They will soon lose the confidence of the Scottish people, though, if they carry on like this. A huge majority in favour of devo max gives a mandate for that and no further.

Willie's had some good coverage in the press today -  as well as the Scotsman, there's the Record, the Telegraph and the P and J, which aren't online yet.