Glenrothes - Post Game Analysis

So, now it's all over, and I've had some sleep, what does the Glenrothes result mean for everyone.

For us, the result was disappointing but not surprising given that we were not perceived as the challengers from the outset. The media portrayed the Glenrothes battle as one between Labour and the SNP and given the resources we had available, there wasn't a huge amount we could do about that.

Wait until the Election Expense returns are in in around 5 weeks time - I expect that they will show that both Labour and the SNP spent not a million miles away from the £100,000 limit. On the other hand, we will not have spent that much more than the limit for fighting a Westminster constituency in a General Election. It's hardly surprising that we have been seen to lose ground when we have been outspent by a margin of around 6:1 by two rivals.

Being in second place also brings in lots of people to your campaign. There are some stalwarts who go to every by-election. I have to thank particularly a dedicated Lib Dem called Roger from Saffron Walden who came up to Livingston for a week and turned up in Glenrothes last weekend. He has probably seen every door in Markinch more than once in the time he was with us. We had a committed core of people who were never away from the place, but it wasn't a Dunfermline when people flocked from far and near to help out.

I am very proud to have been even a small part of a fantastic campaign team. I think the messages we had were good and positive, showing we understood about the difficulties people were facing and putting forward our unique solutions. The literature was top notch but again where the SNP were managing to deliver the entire constituency by lunchtime on successive days in the end, we couldn't match that - and even if we'd had more people, we couldn't have afforded to do much more than we did.

I stand by what I always said, that Harry Wills would make the best MP for Glenrothes, but the odds were always stacked against us purely from a money point of view and the fact that the media encouraged the thinking that it was a tight fight between the SNP and Labour. The Times, for example, one day this week didn't even mention that we or the Tories existed, and when other publications did mention us it was clearly as also rans with a tiny proportion of the report devoted to us despite us coming up with some good opportunities and messages.

The Tories have no real reason to be any happier than we are with the result. I thought the quality of the stuff they put out wasn't that great. I guess they spent more money and did more direct mail, but nothing they had to say was relevant, distinctive or likely to appeal in Glenrothes.

Labour deserves congratulations for ploughing on with a campaign that seemed on many occasions doomed to failure. They got some things spectacularly wrong - that awkward Sarah Brown visit for a start, and some of their campaign literature was appalling both in terms of quality and content. Last weekend they put out a tawdry risographed A3 entitled the Fifer which carried yet more scaremongering about home care charges and a scurrilous allegation that Peter Grant's people told a Levenmouth resident with problems that he was only bothered with Glenrothes at the moment. I don't believe that for one moment. Peter Grant may be from the SNP, but he's not the Anti-Christ and I don't doubt that he cares very deeply about the people he represents.

However, I have to say that the leaflet they delivered yesterday was very good and their artwork of a pair of scissors going through the SNP logo clever enough to make me wish I'd thought of it.

Lindsay Roy is a decent guy and an excellent rector. He does seem uncomfortable in the spotlight, though, and I can't see him attaining high ministerial office any time soon. I was a little disappointed, and perhaps felt a bit cheated, that he didn't seem to have any sense of elation about having won. I know that the last by-election winner in Fife, Willie Rennie, was thrilled to have been given the privilege of being an MP and threw himself into the role with a huge amount of passion - which he still continues to display. I hope that when the spotlight fades he becomes more settled in his new role.

What this victory does not mean is that Labour's problems are over. The economic crisis overshadowed the campaign and, for now, the voters did not want a change, particularly to a party who have not covered themselves in glory and whose comparisons of Scotland to Iceland have led people to think again about the idea of independence.

This was no Glasgow East. There was a residual affecton for the previous incumbent, it was on the PM's doorstep, and came at a time of huge economic uncertainty and crisis, when people tend to opt for the status quo. In many ways it was a lucky escape for Labour. I suspect that their failures over HBOS will become more and more of an issue in months to come. When the job losses start to hit, the former employees will remember who tried to protect them both at Holyrood and Westminster.

As for the Nats, well, how the mighty are fallen. They have been strutting around the constituency like they own it for weeks. They were everywhere yesterday. You could hardly turn a corner without bumping into Alex Salmond at any point in the last few weeks. I actually feel sorry for the ordinary activists who invested time and money in the campaign and who lost out. I have absolutely no sympathy for a man who blatantly takes the electorate for granted by almost promising victory "My prediction is we'll win. We're nearly there." Alex Salmond has taken responsibility for the campaigns failings . Time will tell if hubris has turned to humility but I'm not sure if this leopard can change his spots.

I'm not sure how much of an impact the home care charges issue did have on the SNP campaign. One mistake the SNP made was to let Labour build a head of steam on this. Labour would have introduced a pretty similar scheme themselves. There are times when you don't really want to allow your opponent to lead you off your own messages - but I think there was a case for strong rebuttal on this one, which just didn't happen enough.

I think Labour won because of the economy at this point in time against a principal opponent who was perceived to be weak on the issue. Alex Salmond has not had a good credit crunch and I doubt he is going to have a good recession either. I suspect that Labour would not have done so well in a tight Labour/Lib Dem contest where the credibility of Vince Cable and his ideas would have come more to the fore.

All of the parties have lessons to learn from Glenrothes. I actually think that while by-elections deliver temporary momentum, given the widening disparity in the expenses limits - they used to be about 3 times what you could spend in a General Election, now it's around 8 times - they are not a terribly effective barometer of the political scene in general. You can't extrapolate from the future from them - and nobody knows that better than the SNP - from victory to wound licking in three and a half months.
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Encounters on Delgattie Court

At around 4.30 yesterday afternoon, I was working on Delgattie Court in Glenrothes. Also there was Katy Clark, Labour MP for North Ayrshire and Arran who I was at Aberdeen Uni with back in the 80s - it was great to see her, even if she hasn't aged. With her was Kezia Dugdale, much missed from the Scottish blogosphere.

What was really funny was that I had joked during the Livingston by-election 3 years ago that the Nats kept Alex Salmond locked up in a van for the whole campaign and drove him around with the loud hailer going. Maybe it's true after all - he was indeed in the van, on the loud hailer, in person, on the street we were in.

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High Drama in Glenrothes

I'm not talking about the by-election. I'm referring to the fact that I broke down on the A92 on the way back from the Count and had to wait for the AA for 45 minutes before being taken back home in a tow truck. Stephen was with me so I didn't have to be scared of the dark on my own but it was quite scary being beside the dual carriageway with more traffic than than I would have thought at 2 in the morning whizzing past me.

Anyway, there was some irony that this happened close to the Redhouse Roundabout, which both Peter Grant and us had talked about upgrading during the campaign.

As for the result, obviously disappointing, but we were squeezed. It happens. And then when we're in a strong position, other people get squeezed. It doesn't always happen, but this result can't be compared to the constituencies where we're strong.

I'm proud to have been part of an energetic and fantastic team who are hard working and great to be around.

We were absolutely fantastic at predicting the result from our sampling - we knew that there was going to be a Labour majority of 5000+ when the Nats were still telling the press that they had won.

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Glenrothes, the FInal Push

Not surprisingly, Alex Salmond is telling everyone who will listen that the SNP are going to win Glenrothes on Thursday. He said they were going to win Livingston. They came second. He said they were going to win Dunfermline. The came a pretty poor third. It's not a record that inspires confidence and after their earlier confidence it will be a huge story if they don't win on Thursday.

I was quite surprised to see SNP Towers in Markinch in darkness last night when I drove past at around 7:30 on my way home, although, to be fair, they were still there tonight when I left at the back of 7.

So far in Glenrothes, I've seen loads of Lib Dems, obviously, cos I've been in our office, a fair few Nationalists - including Nicola Sturgeon, whose driver clearly wasn't expecting to meet another car on the High Street when he pulled out the other week, the odd Tory, which is hardly surprising, because they are next door to us, but the only Labour people I've come across were drinking coffee in the Marks and Spencers Simply Food this afternoon. Of course, there are reports of Labour MPs sporting Politburo Chic, and it would be very remiss of me to ignore these.

If I weren't a liberal, I would suggest that whoever produced Labour's The Fifer A3 crappily risographed piece of nonsense being delivered this weekend should be deprived of cakes for all of time for crimes against political literature. See what happens when you even mention the Politburo? This leaflet breaks virtually all the rules of good literature and I suspect will help Fife Council meet its recycling targets. The photos are terrible, the print quality is appalling and the content simply does not inspire in any way. You would think that they would have realised that they would have to try to win people's votes with decent messages, but this doesn't seem to have happened.

The Nats aren't much better - they've been delivering a postcard with a picture of Gordon Brown and Margaret Thatcher, which, strangely, fails to mention their own leader's flirtation with the Iron Lady. They've also been putting out a glossy which lands on the doorstep to show the word THUD in red on a sickly yellow background. Gee. That's going to make you want to read it. They have obviously spent tonnes of money - all their literature has been expensive, slick and not really saying so much.

In contrast, the Lib Dem literature is full of colour, photos, relevance to the things people care about like the cost of living and Tavish Scott's clever tax cut plan, standing against illiberal SNP and Labour actions and creating the campaign for Fairer rail fares between Fife and Edinburgh. Already Harry Wills has taken up hundreds of concerns brought to him by local people. As MP, he would continue to fight on their behalf, in the same way that Willie Rennie has done in Dunfermline.

One of our number overheard a conversation between some young people who had been delighted with Harry Wills' mailing to them and said that it inspired them so much that they wanted to vote.

Harry Wills' campaign has the energy and the practical solutions to ease current problems. A vote for him is a vote to add to the already strong Lib Dem team in Fife.

The Week of Three Elections

Well, this time next week, I will have the first full weekend off I've had since mid August, and three hotly contested elections will be over.

The first is obviously the US Presidential - and don't for one minute think I've forgiven Labour for interfering with my saturation tv watching and plans to sit up all night on Tuesday. It feels good at the moment - let's hope Obama pulls off the historic victory he thoroughly deserves.

The second is, equally obviously, Glenrothes. Everyone involved in all of the campaigns has put their heart and soul into this long by-election fight. Harry Wills would be a fabulous MP, fighting tirelessly for his constituents, like Willie Rennie and Ming Campbell his near neighbours.

Last but not least we find out if Ros Scott has won through in the Party Presidential election next Saturday - all ballot papers have to be back next Friday, so if you are a party member and haven't voted yet - do so this weekend.

All that in one week and Strictly Come Dancing on every night as well - what more could a girl ask for?

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SNP’s Glenrothes Hopeful wants home within five years

Aww, bless. Peter Grant, SNP candidate in Glenrothes, doesn’t really want to spend too much time in Westminster. I sympathise. There’s no way on earth I’d want to leave my lovely life and family in Scotland to work 500 miles away every week. I spent 11 years living in England, which taught me to appreciate how fabulous Scotland is.

However, I have no intention of standing for election to Westminster at any time in the foreseeable future.

Peter Grant is asking people to put their trust in him next week. What will he do if, as expected, Scotland rejects independence in 2010? The referendum might not even happen. What then? Will he stand down as MP, or will he continue grudgingly attending a Parliament he really doesn’t want to be a part of? Would he just stay at home and not bother turning up for vital votes on things like taxes, benefits and ID cards?

The people of Glenrothes deserve an MP who will fight their corner at Westminster. Harry Wills would feel privileged to serve the people of Glenrothes and would be a welcome addition to an already strong Lib Dem Parliamentary team.


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What the Lib Dems Want.....

In response to J Arthur MacNumpty's question, I can't speak for all Lib Dems, but I know what I want, not just for the Glenrothes by-election, but for the future:

- Harry Wills would be a first class MP, fighting for Fife, standing against the illiberal excesses of both the SNP and Labour. Both have disappointed in recent years. ID cards, the SNP pandering to the Catholic Church over the HPV vaccine, 42 days and banning under 21s from buying booze are equally illiberal. The choice between them is kind of like having to choose between eating a wichety grub and a kangaroo's testicle - either way, I throw up. Harry would strengthen further the already excellent Fife Lib Dem Parliamentary team of Ming Cambpell and Willie Rennie at Westminster, Jim Tolson and Iain Smith at Holyrood and Elspeth Attwooll, (and hopefully George Lyon from next June when Elspeth retires).

- Alex Salmond to implement Tavish Scott's tax cut plan. We already have it within our power to do something to help people struggling with rising food and energy costs. We can take meaningful action without picking a fight with Westminster. We can use the Scottish Parliament's existing powers to improve the quality of people's lives. So why haven't you done it, Alex?

- Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling to implement Vince Cable's economic recovery plan to boost the economy, regulate the financial services sector and ensure that reposessions only happen as a last resort - and, Nicola Sturgeon, can you please listen to the lawyers who are saying that legislation is needed in Scotland on this issue.


- The Government to deliver on affordable housing. I see people every week in dire circumstances, families living in bed and breakfast accommodation because they have been make homeless, families struggling to cope with four children in a 2 bedroomed flat, people desperately needing repairs to their homes. Someone has to do something fast.

- Fife's commuters to stop being penalised by season tickets costing £20 more than comparable journeys across the rest of the country. It's not fair and needs stopping. There is no excuse, First Scotrail.

- People to live in peace and safety without the fear of anti social behaviour - which would be a lot easier if the SNP Government had delivered on its pledge to put 1000 more Police on the beat.

I could go on, but that'll do for now.
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Liberal Democrats Launch Glenrothes by-election campaign

Aided by a rather majestic looking golden eagle, Liberal Democrat candidate for Glenrothes Harry Wills launched his campaign today accompanied by Tavish "Tax Cut" Scott, Dunfermline by-election winner Willie Rennie and Dunfermline West MSP Jim Tolson.

Willie's comments reminded me of the last cold and wintry Scottish by-election - his own, in Dunfermline, in February 2006. That campaign was fought in difficult circumstances, but Willie Rennie listened to local people, campaigned on the issues that mattered to them and won through because people saw that he was a hard working, genuine person who would fight tirelessly for his constituents. He has continued to do that as MP as has Jim Tolson as MSP. Harry Wills is made in the same mould. Already he has taken up people's concerns about (among many other things) their housing repairs, anti-social behaviour, fears over the soaring cost of living and anger at the injustice of high rail fares.

The Liberal Democrats at both Holyrood and Westminster have shown that they can provide practical and credible solutions to the problems that people are facing at the moment. As Willie Rennie said, the Liberal Democrats have another good candidate and we have it all to play for.

The photo shows Jim Tolson MSP looking very much at home with the golden eagle.






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SNP and Tories forge unholy alliance in Glenrothes

I wasn't especially surprised to read this little titbit of gossip on Andrew Reeves' blog. So the Tories are basically going to work with the Nats to try to ensure Labour lose Glenrothes. Given their de facto coalition in Holyrood and Alex Salmond's recent hagiographic admiration of Margaret Thatcher, it's not that much of a revelation that they are working together. I'm just amused that they are not even bothering to hide it.

I agree with Andrew that the only way to send the Labour Party a message on November 6th is to vote for Harry Wills. Remember what happened the last time there was a by-election in Fife. Harry who has already been helping local residents with a whole host of concerns. He would be the kind of MP who would work tirelessly for local people and would be an excellent choice to work with fellow Fife MPs Willie Rennie and Ming Campbell. Got to be a better choice than the Government which only looks alive when you compare it to the banking system and the financial markets or the Tartan Tory Twins.

Please to Remember the 6th of November

I have to say that I'm not wildly chuffed that the Government has set the date of the Glenrothes by-election for 6th November. I would much have preferred it if they'd gone for either the week before or after.

Given their other major failings on 10p tax, child poverty, pensions, encouraging a responsible and sustainable financial sector and data losses, my gripe that they have now ruined my long standing plans to thoroughly enjoy the climax of the US Presidential election is quite insignificant, but it's still annoying. Now, rather than sitting up all night with my friends watching the results, we will all be campaigning hard ourselves and will need what little beauty sleep we can grab. Oh well, I suppose that's what the infernal wickedness of Sky Plus is for.....

They should actually have broken with tradition and had it the day before - after all the result may well cause some fireworks...........

Liberal Democrats Soar in Glenrothes

Liberal Democrat hopeful in Glenrothes Harry Wills was joined in the skies above Glenrothes by keen aviator and MP Lembit Opik. The duo were at Fife airport to give Harry's campaign a flying start.

The Party is working hard in Glenrothes with new Scottish Leader Tavish Scott leading the entire contingent of MSPs and many Fife Liberal Democrat councllors campaigning there last night.

Has Labour given up on Glenrothes?

Tales of tension and woe in the Labour campaign in Glenrothes have been appearing in several newspapers over the last few days. Frank Roy, the MP charged with running the campaign has gone running for the hills. Apparently they are too scared to let their candidate Lindsay Roy within a million miles of a journalist cos he's a political novice and might make a gaffe. Why on earth did they let him on the shortlist then? The last time the Labour Party had to defend a seat, they looked around and the only person who could be pressganged into being their candidate was an extremely capable former Minister, Margaret Curran, and she couldn't win it for them. They might as well let Lindsay Roy face the press - he's a respected teacher and rector, and you don't get to be in that position if you can't keep your wits about you and think on your feet. What exactly do they think he's going to do wrong?

It's so typical of the Labour Party to be like that - they've picked their candidate, why can't they just trust the guy to do his job for goodness' sake.

Also mentioned in the press is the spectre of interference from number 10. Gordon, you know what happened the last time you stuck your nose into a by-election in Fife - Willie Rennie stormed to victory in Dunfermline. If you had any sense, you'd just butt out and let the people on the ground do their best. I can't imagine that happening any time soon, though.

Labour's own canvass returns apparently show that they are going to lose, and they seem to be so demotivated that they are just giving up. That's not the attitude they need to have. Someone, somewhere should find a backbone, tell Gordon and No 10 to get stuffed and start running a good local campaign. It's their only chance to avoid yet another humiliation.

In the meantime,the Liberal Democrats' Harry Wills and his energetic team have been working hard. New Scottish leader Tavish Scott has been several times, Nick Clegg has been up, People from all over Scotland have been coming to help. Vince Cable's wise words throughout this crisis have been respected by many and Tavish Scott's tax cut plan has seized the initiative.

Glenrothes by-election - Kezia Dugdale makes shortlist

Congratulations to Kezia Dugdale on making it onto the Labour shortlist in Glenrothes.

This is a tremendous achievement for Kezia. This by-election is so crucial to the future of the Government. It's a vote of confidence in her abilities from the powers that be in the Labour Party. They would not have let anyone onto that list if they weren't 100% sure that they had what it took to pull of a victory for them.

It's not looking good for Labour in Glenrothes - both the Liberal Democrats and the SNP are already campaigning hard and the newly anointed Labour candidate will be playing catch-up.

Liberal Democrats select Harry Wills for Glenrothes

Businessman Harry Wills has been selected to fight the vacant Glenrothes seat for the Liberal Democrats. I spent Sunday up there delivering his Residents' Survey in Leven.

If this guy has even half the drive and energy of the last Liberal Democrat to win a by-election in Fife he would make an extremely good constituency MP. Good luck to him and to his campaign team.

So, the SNP and the Lib Dems have selected. Labour have yet to pick their lamb to the slaughter. In the absence of any big name volunteers, the Dunfermline Press suggests that Dunfermline Central Councillor Willie Sullivan might be in the frame. He was beaten in the selection contest for Dunfermline and West Fife last year.

Gloves off in Glenrothes

Seems like Labour and the SNP are already slugging it out in Glenrothes. The SNP's selection of Peter Grant has seen Labour have a go about Council budget cuts. Funnily enough, they don't mention years of Labour neglect at every level of Government which affected Glenrothes and other parts of Fife - but I suspect the voters will have longer memories.

The SNP are irrelevant at Westminster - what is the point of sending one of their second team down there to do nothing but moan about the union?

The Nats have shown this week that they can't be trusted to stand up for personal freedoms in their decision to pander to the Catholic church on HPV vaccination.

While Labour and the Nats take chunks out of each other, Glenrothes really needs someone to fight for the area. The Kingdom of Fife already has 5 very effective Liberal Democrat Parliamentarians in Elspeth Attwooll, Ming Campbell, Iain Smith, Jim Tolson and Willie Rennie - let's make it 6 in Glenrothes.